Global Temperatures

·       January 2025 was the warmest January globally, with an average ERA5 surface air temperature of 13.23°C, 0.79°C above the 1991-2020 average for January.

·       January 2025 was 1.75°C above the pre-industrial level and was the 18th month in the last nineteen months for which the global-average surface air temperature was more than 1.5°C above the pre-industrial level.

·       The last 12-monthsperiod (February 2024 – January 2025) was 0.73°C above the 1991-2020 average, and 1.61°C above the estimated 1850-1900 average used to define the pre-industrial level.

*Datasets other than ERA5 may not confirm the 18 months above 1.5°C highlighted here, due to the relatively small margins above 1.5°C of ERA5 global temperatures observed for several months and differences among the various datasets. 

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In The Lancet Planetary Health, led by the University of Bristol, shows how prolonged exposure to extreme hot and cold temperatures not only carries greater risk of death but could also be linked to many other health issues, including reduced physical activity and dementia.

While the negative impact of weather extremes on heart and lung health are widely known, the study unites leading climate scientists, meteorologists, public health doctors, and epidemiologists to give a more comprehensive picture of the far-reaching and interrelated implications.

The assessment highlights how more frequent and lasting weather extremes, such as with heatwaves and flooding, exacerbate mental health problems and the spread of infectious diseases. Long-term heat exposure can disrupt sleep, which is associated with cognitive decline and conditions such as Alzheimer’s disease. Heat can also heighten levels of kidney disease and skin cancer, while cold weather may result in more injuries from falls, poor mental health through isolation, joint pain, and sedentary behaviour LINK HERE

We are on the brink of an irreversible climate disaster. This is a global emergency beyond any doubt. Much of the very fabric of life on Earth is imperiled. We are stepping into a critical and unpredictable new phase of the climate crisis. For many years, scientists, including a group of more than 15,000, have sounded the alarm about the impending dangers of climate change driven by increasing greenhouse gas emissions and ecosystem change (Ripple et al. 2020). For half a century, global warming has been correctly predicted even before it was observed—and not only by independent academic scientists but also by fossil fuel companies (Supran et al. 2023). Despite these warnings, we are still moving in the wrong direction; fossil fuel emissions have increased to an all-time high, the 3 hottest days ever occurred in July of 2024 (Guterres 2024), and current policies have us on track for approximately 2.7 degrees Celsius (°C) peak warming by 2100 (UNEP 2023). Tragically, we are failing to avoid serious impacts, and we can now only hope to limit the extent of the damage. We are witnessing the grim reality of the forecasts as climate impacts escalate, bringing forth scenes of unprecedented disasters around the world and human and nonhuman suffering. We find ourselves amid an abrupt climate upheaval, a dire situation never before encountered in the annals of human existence. We have now brought the planet into climatic conditions never witnessed by us or our prehistoric relatives within our genus, Homo (supplemental figure S1; CenCO2PIP Consortium et al. 2023).

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Global temperature

August 2024 was the joint-warmest August globally (together with August 2023), with an average ERA5 surface air temperature of 16.82°C, 0.71°C above the 1991-2020 average for August.   

August 2024 was 1.51°C above the pre-industrial level and is the 13th month in a 14-month period for which the global-average surface air temperature exceeded 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.

The global-average temperature for boreal summer 2024 (June–August) was the highest on record at 0.69°C above the 1991-2020 average for these three months, surpassing the previous record from June–August 2023 (0.66°C).

The global-average temperature for the past 12 months (September 2023 – August 2024) is the highest on record for any 12-month period, at 0.76°C above the 1991–2020 average and 1.64°C above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial average.

The year-to-date (January–August 2024) global-average temperature anomaly is 0.70°C above the 1991-2020 average, which is the highest on record for this period and 0.23°C warmer than the same period in 2023. The average anomaly for the remaining months of this year would need to drop by at least 0.30°C for 2024 not to be warmer than 2023. This has never happened in the entire ERA5 dataset, making it increasingly likely that 2024 is going to be the warmest year on record. LINK HERE

García-León, David et al. The Lancet Public Health, Volume 9, Issue 9, e644 - e653

Excessively high and low temperatures substantially affect human health. Climate change is expected to exacerbate heat-related morbidity and mortality, presenting unprecedented challenges to public health systems.

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Montgomery, Hugh; (2024) Final call: Climate change and us. Journal of the Royal College of Physicians of Edinburgh

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Hughes F, Romanello M, Walawender M, Montgomery H; (April 2024) Encyclopaedia of Life Sciences, Wiley Online Library

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White, S; Montgomery, H; (2024) The need for radical climate interventions: six years to secure humanity's 'liveable future'. Anaesthesia

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Leddin, Desmond; Montgomery, Hugh; (2023) The fundamentals: understanding the climate change crisis. Gut , 72 (12) pp. 2196-2198.

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Romanello, M; Napoli, CD; Green, C; Kennard, H; Lampard, P; Scamman, D; Walawender, M; ... Tonne, C; + view all (2023) The 2023 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: the imperative for a health-centred response in a world facing irreversible harms.

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Nonprofit environment watchdogs put their stamps of approval on countless wood products that get touted as responsibly produced. But Reuters found that the timber firms these groups certify are harvesting large swaths of Canada’s older forests, which are critical to containing global warming.

Canadian forests have seen some of the world’s largest declines in ecologically critical primary and old-growth woodlands over the last two decades, even as sustainability-certification programs grew to include nearly all of Canada’s logging.

To track destruction of older woodlands in these certified zones, Reuters analyzed forestry data in Ontario, a major logging province. The analysis found that about 30% of the certified boreal forests harvested from 2016 to 2020 were at least 100 years old. That resulted in the loss of 377 square miles of these older forests, an area the size of New York City and Washington D.C. combined. LINK HERE